Looking for Mr Goodwrench

I'm picking up my car in a couple of hours. Funny how my skilled, small shop, independent mechanic is so much better at diagnosing car problems than the dealership mechanics are. Dealership say, bad, bad, very bad, this will cost $2500. Independent mechanic say, wait just a consarned minute there! This and that, we'll do this now and watch for other things to possibly develop, $500, please. Can you guess which one I trust?